RISK ANALYSIS DYNAMIC MODEL IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM PROCESSES

Accounting for possible risks that affect the successful implementation of construction projects is one most important tasks in planning and managing construction. The main problem risk accounting they arise under influence random factors conditions high uncertainty. Therefore, vast majority methods are based on probabilistic models. Given fact recently level uncertainty almost all areas economic activity has increased significantly, it necessary to develop new approaches analysis would respond as accurately quickly emerging threats. Aim. purpose study a mathematical model theory Markov processes, which allows, approach, analyze negative impact adverse dynamics their receipt order increase efficiency work. Materials methods. assessment unfavorable project, presented paper, makes assess probability threats with varying degrees damage, calculate during assumes cause different levels damage project arrive at times require eliminate them. To implement model, system differential equations given, solved by numerical An solution various carried out. its long-term considered separately. temporal parameters task degree was Results. relevance developing shown, goals objectives scientific research set. ways solving set given substantiated. A been developed estimate probabilities finding states, differing project. On basis methods, practical characteri¬zing progress results analyzed, recommendations using practice. Conclusion. dynamic can serve building an optimal control work making decisions organization activities.